Fears of a severe global food crisis

ছবিঃ সংগৃহীত

News Desk: Due to the Iran–Israel and U.S. conflict, the strategically important Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut down, severely disrupting the global supply of chemical fertilizers. Since the outbreak of the war, international shipments of fertilizer have nearly come to a halt. Military and economic analysts warn that this could lead to skyrocketing fertilizer prices and acute shortages in the global market, which may eventually reduce global crop production by up to 30%. This production shortfall is expected to quickly impact the prices of agricultural products.
The Chief Economist of the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Máximo Torero, said in an interview with Al Jazeera that the situation is becoming increasingly complex. He explained that the severe shortage of fertilizers is directly affecting critical planting seasons in many countries. In several Asian countries, the optimal sowing period has already passed, and due to fertilizer shortages, farmers are unable to take necessary actions on time.
Highlighting the severity of the situation, he noted that major global food-exporting countries—such as the United States and Brazil—may change their farming patterns. To cope with fertilizer shortages, they might reduce the cultivation of crops like wheat and corn and shift toward crops like soybeans, which naturally help retain nitrogen in the soil.
Additionally, with the continuous rise in global crude oil prices, many farmers may choose to use their crops not as food but for producing biofuels.
Economist Máximo Torero further warned that prices of wheat and soybeans have already begun to rise in global markets. This upward trend is expected to become more evident in the second half of the year, and by next year, agricultural product prices could increase sharply.
Not only food prices, but the combined effect of rising fuel costs could push global food inflation to a dangerous level. Unless this crisis is resolved, the risk of a worldwide food shortage will continue to intensify over time.
Source: Al Jazeera