When might fuel prices return to normal? Here’s what experts are saying

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News Desk: Even though a ceasefire has been declared between the United States, Israel, and Iran, experts have warned that it will take a long time for global oil and gas prices to return to pre-war levels.

According to them, before the energy market can stabilize, it is essential to ensure regular and secure movement of cargo ships through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

Nearly 20% of the world’s oil exported from the Middle East to Asia and Europe passes through this strait. Following the conflict, Iran reportedly disrupted this route, causing global energy prices to surge sharply.

Professor Rockford Weitz of Tufts University’s Maritime Studies told Al Jazeera that while normally 120 to 140 ships pass through the strait daily, only five passed on Wednesday (April 8) and seven on Thursday (April 9). He said this massive gap shows that the situation is still far from normal.

Analysts say that attacks on energy infrastructure and rising insurance costs have further deepened the crisis. Professor Usha Haley of Wichita State University noted that countries like Iraq had to halt production due to storage shortages, and restarting operations could take weeks or even months. In particular, LNG (liquefied natural gas) supply may take at least three to six months to normalize—provided no new instability emerges.

Meanwhile, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has warned that global economic growth could fall further from the current 3.3% due to the impact of the conflict.

Senior fellow Rachel Ziemba of the Center for a New American Security believes that the future of energy supply depends on how long the ceasefire lasts and whether it develops into a long-term agreement. She added that, for now, due to supply risks from the Middle East, oil prices are likely to remain higher than pre-war levels.

Source: Al Jazeera